Week 17 wraps up with the San Francisco 49ers visiting the Indianapolis Colts on “Monday Night Football.”
San Francisco has clinched a playoff spot, meaning three teams from the ultra-competitive NFC West are in. The Colts desperately need a win to keep their playoff chances alive.
The 49ers are riding a four-game winning streak, while the Colts have lost their last four.
The 49ers are 5.5-point favorites Monday night.
Matt Bowen, Liz Loza and Pamela Maldonado offer their picks, prop bets, daily fantasy sports plays and analysis to help you bet the game.
Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.
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Picks | Props | DFS tips | Trends
Game bet
Total points UNDER 46.5 (-115)
Maldonado: This is volume without speed. Both offenses are fine taking what’s there, running the ball and moving in chunks instead of going for home runs. That keeps the clock moving and limits total possessions. The 49ers can score, but they’re more methodical, and the Colts want to grind with the run while still breaking in Philip Rivers. That combo usually turns into long drives, a few field goals and points coming slower.
Notable player props, bets
Brock Purdy OVER 246.5 passing yards (-112)
Bowen: 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan will have answers for the Colts’ single-high and split-safety coverages, giving Purdy defined reads and vacated windows to deliver the ball. Plus, this Colts defense has allowed 252.6 passing yards per game over their last five. Bet the over.
Rivers over 17.5 completions (-124)
Loza: Rivers completed 18 of 27 passes last week after nearly five years of retirement against a fierce Seattle Seahawks defense that brings pressure at the fourth-highest rate. This go-around, he will have shaken off the rust, is playing at home and is battling a 49ers defense that ranks last in pressure rate. Rivers will be more acclimated and have more time, and with the Colts 5.5-point underdogs, he’ll still have plenty of points to chase.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen’s recommendations
Captain: Jonathan Taylor ($16,500). Trust the volume in a game script that should stay run-heavy with Philip Rivers at quarterback. Taylor has seen 21 or more carries in four of his last five games. And he can hit home runs.
Also in my lineup: Jauan Jennings ($8,000) caught two touchdown passes in the Week 15 win over the Tennessee Titans, and he has at least one score in four of his last five games. Plus, he’s averaging 6.6 targets per game over that stretch. Good matchup here for Jennings versus Indy.
Loza’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): George Kittle ($12,600) ranks second among the 49ers’ pass catchers in targets, catches and receiving yards since Week 8. He also had the second-most receiving TDs with five, just behind Jennings, who has registered six. Kittle should remain key to the 49ers’ offensive plan versus a banged-up Colts defense.
Also in my lineup: Tyler Warren ($9,900). Philip Rivers has regularly leaned on tight ends throughout his career, averaging 7.4 attempts per game to the position. That translates to the ninth-most by this season’s standards. Warren led the Colts with six targets last week. He should find success against a 49ers defense that gave up eight receptions on 10 targets for over 80 receiving yards to the Tennessee Titans‘ TE duo last Sunday.
Maldonado’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Christian McCaffrey ($17,700) still owns the safest role. He gets touches, scores consistently and doesn’t need a perfect matchup to get production. Even when his yardage dips, volume and touchdown equity keep his floor intact.
Also in my lineup: Jonathan Taylor ($11,000) is the engine of the Colts’ offense. He’s locked into 20-plus touches with goal-line work and has breakaway potential. Volume keeps him fantasy relevant.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
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The 49ers are 5-0 ATS as road favorites this season. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall as favorites.
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The 49ers have covered four straight games.
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The Colts are 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season.
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The Colts are 0-5 ATS in their last five prime-time games (0-2 ATS under Shane Steichen).