President Trump said India is going to stop buying Russian oil. Such a move—which would have profound effects on global crude trading—is easier said than done.
The world’s most populous nation became addicted to cheap Russian oil after Moscow invaded Ukraine. The West shunned Russian energy and India was happy to snap it up—at a big discount to oil from other sources.
In announcing a trade deal with India on Monday, Trump said India, one of Russia’s biggest customers, had agreed to stop buying from Russia and shift purchases to American oil and potentially oil from Venezuela. The move is meant to pressure Russia economically into negotiating an end to the Ukraine war.
Analysts are questioning how quickly India can wean itself off Russian oil imports. U.S. crude oil is much more expensive and takes longer to get to India. To cut off imports from Russia would also threaten the warm, mutually beneficial relationship that New Delhi and Moscow forged over decades and maintained throughout the war.
India, meanwhile, has yet to confirm the oil part of the trade pact with Trump. Prime Minister Narendra Modi didn’t say anything in his social-media posts on the deal. India’s foreign ministry hasn’t made any comments on the matter either.
The Kremlin told reporters on Tuesday that it hadn’t heard any statements from India about plans to stop purchasing oil from Russia.
For much of 2025, India relied on Russia for roughly a third of its oil imports, up from just 2% before Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022. In January, the country imported 1.1 million barrels a day from Russia, according to ship-tracking company Vortexa. As a comparison, India imported only 0.3 million barrels a day from the U.S. last month.
“I’m skeptical,” said David Wech, chief economist at Vortexa. “It would be a huge decision for India to completely move away from Russian crude. I don’t think that the real intention is to bring India’s Russia crude imports to zero. It’s more to increase the pressure on Russia.”
In a sign of that pressure, the price difference on Tuesday between the global oil benchmark, Brent, and Russia’s Urals blend reached $27.10, up from $26.50 at the end of last year, according to commodity analytics company Argus Media. That indicates the gaping discount Russia must accept from buyers.
Expensive alternatives
Replacing Russian crude with U.S. Gulf Coast barrels presents several challenges to Indian refineries, analysts said.
It takes longer to ferry oil from the U.S. to India than from Russia to India. Currently, transit time from the U.S. Gulf Coast to India is 54 days. From Russia, it is 36 days, according to Vortexa.
Buying from the U.S. is also more expensive. Refineries in India would need to pay an extra $7 a barrel if they switch from Russia to U.S. sellers, according to Vortexa.
“Refiners are technically capable of operating without Urals, but a rapid disengagement would be commercially challenging and politically sensitive,” according to an analysis from Kpler, a ship-tracking data provider. The firm expects imports from Russia to stay stable throughout the first quarter and early second quarter.
Refineries in India are more used to refining heavy, sour crudes, which are the type of oil in Russia and in Venezuela, but not the light, sweet type in the U.S. India could, potentially, make up for some lost Russian barrels from Venezuela, but oil from the South American country is unlikely to be able to satisfy India’s vast oil demand.
In 2025, the whole of Venezuela produced about 900,000 barrels a day, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. India bought on average 1.6 million barrels a day from Russia last year.
China option
The other big buyer of Russia’s crude oil is China. The country is the world’s largest oil importer and was the largest buyer of cut-price Russian crude last year.
“On paper, Chinese buyers should be able to absorb any amount of Russian crude rejected by India. However, there are some strategic questions that remain,” said Ronald Smith, founding partner of Texas-based Emerging Markets Oil and Gas Consulting Partners.
Most of the seaborne oil imports from Russia go to China’s independent refineries, known as teapots. The larger, state-owned refineries scaled back purchases after October sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russia’s two biggest oil companies.
A number of these teapots are set up to run Venezuela’s heavy crude, for which Urals isn’t a direct substitute, said Smith.
Further, from a strategic point of view, such a switch would boost China’s dependence on Russia, and vice versa. The two countries maintain a friendly, but wary, alliance.
If China absorbed the oil currently going to India, Russia’s crude would make up well over 20% of China’s total oil imports. It would also concentrate over 50% of Russia’s crude exports into a single country, Smith added.
Write to Rebecca Feng at rebecca.feng@wsj.com