A tropical cyclone – Horacio – quickly became the most prominent weather system of 2026 this week, strengthening rapidly over the southwest Indian Ocean east of Mauritius and near Rodrigues before beginning to weaken over open water.
According to Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)-based reporting summarised by the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC), Horacio reached 140 knots in warning number 9 (about 160 mph / 260 km/h on a 1-minute sustained basis), placing it squarely in Category 5-equivalent territory on the Saffir-Simpson scale, reported cdtnews.com.
Tropical Cyclone Horacio | Top latest updates
-According to the last JTWC warning seen on the website of PDC, Horacio was listed at 95 knots with gusts to 115 knots, located approximately 510 NM southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. The storm “is forecast to begin turning and transiting poleward and eastward under the influence of a str to the east. Increasing dry air intrusion combined with rapidly and drastically increasing vws are expected to degrade the vertical structure of the vortex and result in rapid weakening trend over the next 48 hours, as indicated by all numerical models. At that time the system will become shallow and is expected to slow down and turn west-southwestward in response to a building long-wave ridge, while still weakening”.
-Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) likewise classified Horacio as an “Intense Tropical Cyclone” on February 24, placing the center at 22.4°S, 64.3°E at 10 am. local time, approximately 315 km southeast of Rodrigues and 745 km east-southeast of Mauritius. MMS estimated central pressure at 955 hPa and reported movement toward the south-southwest at 19 km/h, explicitly stating the cyclone was “showing signs of weakening while moving away.”
-The combination of extreme peak intensity and limited land impact makes Horacio particularly notable. It intensified into a high-end cyclone over open water, threatened nearby islands with dangerous seas and strong gusts, and then weakened as environmental conditions deteriorated before any direct catastrophic landfall. Official bulletins and tracking data capture both the dramatic intensification phase and the sharp weakening phase within roughly a 24-48 hour window.
Why Horacio is being called the strongest storm of 2026
The label “strongest storm of 2026” stems primarily from peak wind estimates during Horacio’s rapid intensification. In its February 23 update citing JTWC warning number 9, PDC reported sustained winds of 140 knots with gusts to 170 knots.
The above corresponds to Category 5-equivalent intensity using 1-minute wind standards and exceeds the wind speeds observed in most earlier storms this year.
It is important to note that tropical cyclone “strength” can be defined in several ways: maximum sustained wind, minimum central pressure, peak gusts, storm size, rainfall footprint, storm surge, or accumulated cyclone energy. Horacio’s headline status is tied specifically to its peak wind intensity during a short but explosive strengthening phase, rather than to overall impact or duration.
Why Horacio started weakening so quickly
Horacio’s weakening phase was nearly as striking as its intensification. By JTWC warning number 10 on February 24, the advisory mirror showed winds reduced to 120 knots, with forecasts projecting 100 knots at 12 hours, 80 knots at 24 hours, and 60 knots at 36 hours, along with the onset of extratropical transition later in the forecast period.
The JTWC reasoning, as reported by HurricaneZone, explained that environmental conditions had shifted rapidly toward unfavourable. The primary drivers were significant dry mid-level air intrusion and increasing vertical wind shear.
While sea surface temperatures initially remained sufficient and poleward outflow was still strong, the advisory emphasized that hostile influences were overtaking the storm’s structure.
The reasoning described Horacio as “rapidly weakening” while curving around the axis of a subtropical ridge to the east. It noted that although the eye remained visible, it was filling, and deep convection had diminished. Wind shear was assessed at 15-20 knots and forecast to increase substantially.