Hello. This is a special edition of WSJ Politics. President Trump and Israel on Saturday launched a massive military campaign against Iran that could continue indefinitely. Trump told Axios he could decide to make it a lengthy campaign and effectively take over the country, or end it in a few days and then hand Iran over to the Iranian people. Trump’s decision to attack Iran is one of the most consequential decisions of his presidency, or any presidency in modern times. Follow along for live updates.
President Trump and Israel on Saturday launched a massive military campaign against Iran that could continue indefinitely
Here is what Trump is facing:
Geopolitically: Trump confirmed Saturday that strikes had killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran is suddenly, effectively, leaderless. Far-reaching change will now unspool not just in Iran, but in the Middle East and across the world. Containing and guiding any potential change will test the Middle East, the U.S., Russia, China, and a host of others. Was Trump ready for this? We could soon see.
Diplomatically: Key to containing fallout from Trump’s military operation against Venezuela was the swift partnership he made with the country’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez. Is there a “Delcy counterpart” in Iran now? Can the U.S. really afford to allow a messy process that results in new Iranian leadership the U.S. can’t trust?
Economically: Unrest in the Middle East could create economic turmoil, at least temporarily, especially in energy markets. Oil prices had been trending lower, so this could give Trump some breathing room. And the recent energy cooperation between the U.S. and Venezuela also could help. But these things are unpredictable.
Politically: White House officials are set to brief lawmakers and congressional staff on Sunday. Some Democrats immediately said the war was illegal and required congressional authorization. Trump didn’t make a clearly defined argument for regime change in the lead-up to the war, and his aides could be pressed to explain how they will support Iranian citizens in overthrowing the regime (which Trump said Saturday was the goal).
Setting Congress aside, Trump’s bigger issues could be with American voters who are exhausted from trillions of dollars spent on faraway parts of the world following urgent calls to arms by U.S. leaders. Trump campaigned hard on ending “forever wars” and focusing on domestic concerns. A growing chorus of concern is already rising from some in his MAGA base. Can he quell that?
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About Me
I’m Damian Paletta, The Wall Street Journal’s Washington coverage chief. I’ve covered Washington for 22 years as a reporter and editor. I’ve covered the White House, Congress, national security, the federal budget, economics and multiple market meltdowns.WSJ Politics brings you an expert guide to what’s driving D.C., every weekday morning. Send your feedback to politics@wsj.com (if you’re reading this in your inbox, you can just hit reply). This edition was curated and edited in collaboration with Joe Haberstroh and Dick Streuly. Got a tip for us? Here’s how to submit.
