THE WAR in Iran is spreading, fast. In the first 48 hours of the conflict America and Israel have dropped thousands of bombs on Iran, the very first ones killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader. In response, Iran has fired hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at nine countries. On March 2nd General Dan Caine, the chairman of America’s joint chiefs of staff, said that it would take “some time” to meet war aims, which he and Pete Hegseth, America’s defence secretary, defined largely in terms of Iran’s missile force, rather than regime change. How might the war escalate further?
US Iran War News: Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the US launched strikes on Iran in Tehran (via REUTERS)
Iran has not held back. It has already killed six American troops and came close to inflicting casualties on British forces stationed in Bahrain, as well as killing 11 civilians in Israel and five in Gulf countries. It has attacked countries with whom it has until now had good relations, notably Oman. It struck European soil when a drone hit the runway of RAF Akrotiri, a British airbase on Cyprus, on March 2nd. And it has targeted its missiles not just at American bases, but also at cities, airports and energy infrastructure.
It could still go further. The attacks on energy infrastructure on March 2nd may have been warning shots. They involved relatively small numbers of drones against less-critical targets, such as a water tank at a power plant in Qatar. Larger salvoes could come next. Iran might also aim for more critical infrastructure. An Iranian attack on Arab water desalination plants, in particular, could have devastating consequences.
Kuwait derives 90% of its drinking water from desalination, Oman 86%, Saudi Arabia 70% and the UAE 42%. In leaked cables published in 2009 American diplomats estimated that a successful attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail plant, which then provided Riyadh with 90% of its water supply, would force the kingdom to evacuate its capital within a week. Saudi Arabia has built more capacity since then, but desalination plants are highly vulnerable to missiles.
Iran could also attempt to mine the Strait of Hormuz, though its navy has been battered by American air strikes. It could mount terrorist attacks abroad and attempt to disrupt infrastructure by cyber means, as it did in 2012 with cyber-attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco and Qatar’s RasGas. “Hacktivist” groups with ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps have already threatened attacks, says John Hultquist of Google’s threat-intelligence group. Crude “denial of service” attacks, which bombard networks with messages, have already been directed at infrastructure.
As Iran batters its neighbours with missiles, they have grown steadily more irate (and short of air-defence interceptors). On February 28th Saudi Arabia indicated “its readiness to place all its capabilities at [its neighbours’] disposal in support of any measures” and Qatar said it “reserve[d] its full right to respond”. Two days later Qatar shot down two Iranian Su-24 bombers. “They were going to be very little involved,” said Donald Trump on March 2nd, “and now they insist on being involved.”
There is little consensus among Gulf states on the next steps, though. They would prefer to act as a bloc, rather than individually. The simplest option would be allowing America to use their airspace and air bases to wage its war on Iran. What is less clear is whether America would wish to do this. It would allow a higher rate of sorties over Iran—more strikes in any given period of time—and closer proximity for search and rescue operations.
But in creating more congested airspace, with Iranian projectiles also flying to and fro, it would raise the risk of the sort of fratricide that occurred on March 2nd when Kuwaiti air-defence batteries shot down three American jets. It would also mean placing aircraft within closer range of Iranian ballistic missiles, rather than flying from aircraft-carriers in the Gulf of Oman and from more distant airfields, Ovda in Israel and Muwaffaq Salti in Jordan. Gulf states would probably only join the fighting directly in the event of a mass-casualty or highly damaging incident; even then any action would almost certainly be framed as active defence, with a focus on targeting drones and missiles.
Europeans are also being drawn into the fray. An Iranian strike on Abu Dhabi hit a French naval base. On March 1st, after missiles flew towards Cyprus (probably overshooting Israel), Sir Keir Starmer, Britain’s prime minister, said that he would allow America to use British airbases. “The only way to stop the threat is to destroy the missiles at source,” declared Sir Keir, “in their storage depots or the launchers which used to fire the missiles.” For now, European countries are likely to stick to defensive action. Greece, for example, has dispatched two F-16 jets and a frigate to Cyprus.
Finally, America and Israel could yet escalate the war themselves. America has already used B2 bombers to attack Iranian missile facilities. “We haven’t even started hitting them hard,” warned Mr Trump on March 2nd. “The big wave hasn’t even happened. The big one is coming soon.” Mr Trump is fond of empty bluster. But America or Israel could choose to target Khamenei’s successors in another round of decapitation. They could also attack Iran’s energy infrastructure, as Israel did last year when it struck a fuel depot, an oil refinery and the South Pars gas field, the world’s largest.
Wars in the Middle East have frequently drawn in many countries. The American-led coalition in 1991 involved 34. The Arab-Israeli conflicts of the 20th century and the Syrian civil war of the 2010s were international affairs. But no war in the region has ever involved bombs and missiles flying as far and wide as they have in the past three days.
