YOON SUK YEOL’S imposition of martial law in late 2024 lasted only a few hours. Those implicated in the South Korean ex-president’s plot will pay the price over many years. His prime minister received a 23-year prison sentence for his role in the debacle last month. On February 19th a court will rule on insurrection charges against Mr Yoon himself. The expected guilty verdict could lead to a death sentence (though it is very unlikely to be carried out); the only alternative would be one of life imprisonment.
South Korea’s former President Yoon Suk Yeol. (File/AP)
The case against Mr Yoon appears to be clear-cut. Yet his actions created deep cleavages on the South Korean right. His former right-of-centre party, the People Power Party (PPP), has split into two warring factions. Defenders of the disgraced standard-bearer insist that, given obstructionism by the opposition in parliament, he was within his rights to impose martial law and send troops to seize the National Assembly and raid the election commission. These self-proclaimed “Yoon Again” forces seek to make such beliefs a litmus test for PPP leaders. Others argue that martial law is fundamentally unacceptable in a rich democracy with a painful history of military dictatorships. This faction—one might call them the “Yoon Never Again” group—wants to cut off all ties with the former president.
The divide amounts to an identity crisis within the country’s conservative movement, and the fissures within it appeared from the start of the episode. On the night of the martial law declaration, the then-leader of the PPP, Han Dong-hoon, broke with the president and rushed to parliament to help block him. “I thought this was anti-democratic and must be stopped,” Mr Han recalls. Yet most PPP parliamentarians boycotted a vote to overturn martial law and refused to impeach the president. When it came time to select a candidate for snap presidential elections last June, the PPP opted not for Mr Han, but for Kim Moon-soo, a minister in Mr Yoon’s government who had refused to apologise for martial law. Mr Kim lost decisively to Lee Jae Myung of the left-leaning Democratic Party (DP). Following the defeat, the PPP’s leader in parliament resigned, calling for a reset of the party.
The Yoon Again faction has nonetheless maintained the upper hand. The PPP’s current leader, Jang Dong-hyuk, has been a staunch defender of the ex-president, even as the party’s standing with the public has plummeted, with its approval ratings wallowing below 30%. Leaders of the Yoon Never Again wing have come under attack as traitors. Mr Han was recently expelled from the party. “Many people are trapped in partisan frameworks, prioritising political battles over safeguarding democracy,” he told The Economist before his expulsion.
Far-right online commentators have fuelled the Yoon Again movement. Jeon Han-gil, a former history teacher, exploited his massive YouTube following to become a conservative kingmaker. After Mr Jang hinted at changing course slightly, Mr Jeon issued an ultimatum; the party leader felt obliged to back down. Such figures blend conspiracy theories about election fraud, anti-communist rhetoric aimed at China and North Korea, and evangelical Christianity. Their followers, who gather for regular protests in downtown Seoul, have adopted the iconography of Donald Trump’s MAGA movement, donning hats emblazoned with “Make Korea Great Again” and chanting “Stop the Steal”.
Yoon Never Again conservatives see pandering to an ever more extreme base as a sure-fire way to alienate the broader public. “How could ‘Yoon Again’ be the future?” Mr Han laments. More than 60% of South Koreans believe the declaration of martial law amounted to insurrection. Continuing to stand by the disgraced president after the court ruling will not help: a similar share of the electorate thinks the PPP should cut ties with Mr Yoon if he is found guilty. Renaming itself, as the PPP plans to next month, is unlikely to hoodwink voters. The first electoral verdict will come during local elections in June, when the country chooses its governors, mayors and municipal legislators.
Until the two factions resolve their strife, the right will remain weak and divided. A hapless opposition will, in turn, mean a freer hand for Mr Lee and the DP. When the PPP criticises the current president, “the public doesn’t seem to care,” says Kim Yong-tae, a PPP member of parliament in the anti-Yoon camp. “They seem to perceive it as a party that championed martial law.” That is not healthy for democracy either. Mr Yoon’s corrosive legacy will last far longer than his truncated presidency.
