There are two playoff berths still to be determined in the NFL playoffs (one in each conference). Neither No. 1 seed has been clinched and four division titles are up for grabs. Saturday’s ABC/ESPN doubleheader will give us some of those answers.
The winner of Saturday’s matchup clinches the NFC West, the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the NFC. A tie would also do the trick for Seattle.
Matt Bowen, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak and Seth Walder offer their picks, prop bets, daily fantasy sports plays and analysis to help you bet the games.
The Panthers shut out the Buccaneers 30-0 in Week 3 but are coming off a loss last week against the Seahawks.
The Buccaneers opened the season with six wins in their first eight games but have just one win since their Week 9 bye. They have lost four straight.
Tampa Bay is a 2.5-point favorite over Carolina on Saturday.
Game bet
Buccaneers -2.5 (-112)
Maldonado: Tampa Bay has been more reliable scoring points at home. The Bucs are getting a Panthers defense that struggles to generate pressure and hold the quarterback edge in high-leverage spots. That matters, as Baker Mayfield can push the ball when protection holds. Carolina’s offense is methodical but is capped by persistent red zone issues.
Panthers money line (+124)
Solak: It has been a profitable winter fading Tampa Bay and I have only one more crack at it. Carolina could have lost the first meeting — and almost did — but I still make the fair price on Panthers ML +107, so getting +124 is good value. Plus, Mayfield has typically underperformed at home over his career. The Panthers are coming off a terrible loss to the Seahawks, but this year they have consistently rebounded well following losses. If the Buccaneers were going to pull out of their spiral, they would have done so already.
Notable player props, bets
1:01
Why Bryce Young should be on your fantasy radar in Week 18
Tristian H. Cockcroft explains why Bryce Young is a good replacement if your fantasy quarterback is resting in Week 18.
Bucky Irving over 83.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114)
Bowen: Irving rushed for 71 yards on 19 carries in the Week 16 head-to-head matchup versus Carolina. Let’s bet on the rushing volume, plus an elevated usage in the pass game for Irving. Throw some screens and checkdowns here.
Jalen Coker over 32.5 receiving yards
Loza: Coker has logged at least 32 receiving yards in five of his past six outings. He recorded a 3-47-0 stat line when he faced the Bucs’ defense back in Week 16. With Ja’Tavion Sanders sidelined and given the postseason implications of the contest, Coker should see a slight uptick in opportunities.
Bryce Young over 199.5 passing yards (-111)
Moody: The Buccaneers’ defense has allowed a 112.5 quarterback rating over the past three games, the seventh-highest mark in the league. With the NFC South title on the line, I’m taking Young to shine against a Tampa Bay defense that has also surrendered 230.7 passing yards per game over that span. Young has averaged 209.1 passing yards per game in his career when attempting at least 28 passes.
Yaya Diaby 1-plus sacks (+252)
Walder: Diaby is having a perfectly solid season, with 7.0 sacks and a 15% pass-rush win rate at edge — 14th best at the position and above its 13% average. I’d be surprised that the odds for Diaby are as favorable as they are except that he has been underrated by the betting market for the past few weeks. Although it’s true that Young has been better than average at sack avoidance this season, the Bucs are also light favorites — and that works to Diaby’s advantage. I make the fair price for this bet +197.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Mike Evans ($15,300) has a touchdown grab in each of his past two games, which includes the red zone score he notched in the Week 16 tilt versus Carolina. Evans also saw nine targets in that one.
Also in my lineup: Jalen Coker ($6,400). This is an upside play with Coker, who can get loose as an isolation target versus the Bucs’ corners when Bryce Young reads pressure. Coker caught 3 of 4 targets for 47 yards in the Week 16 game versus Tampa Bay.
Loza’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Evans ($15,300) Despite low yardage totals in back-to-back efforts, Evans has found the end zone in two straight games. He remains Mayfield’s best playmaker, particularly in the red area of the field.
Also in my lineup: Young ($14,400). Tampa Bay’s defense has struggled to effectively pressure opposing QBs. In fact, Young tossed two scores and threw zero picks despite being pressured 16 times (sixth most) versus Tampa Bay in Week 16.
Maldonado’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Baker Mayfield ($15,900). Carolina generates minimal pass rush, so the Bucs can be aggressive in a must-win game at home. If Tampa Bay covers, it will be because Mayfield is responsible for passing volume and scores. His volatility works for you because the Panthers lack the explosiveness to punish mistakes consistently.
Also in my lineup: Emeka Egbuka ($7,600) is the most reliable skill-position option who could benefit from Baker’s volume. He’s the strongly correlated player with the outcome that gives you exposure without overthinking game flow.
Solak’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Rico Dowdle ($13,200) has a contract incentive that activates if he scores one more touchdown, which perhaps makes it a little more likely he gets the goal-line carries over Chuba Hubbard ($4,400). More importantly, the Panthers were extremely pass-heavy against the Buccaneers in the first game despite a largely neutral script, and when Dowdle isn’t getting heavy rushing usage, he gets involved often in the route tree — four catches on six targets the last time they played. That’s big on a PPR site.
Also in my lineup: Hubbard ($4,400). I love playing both backs in showdown lineups to get unique, and the Panthers duo is always a great candidate for this usage. If Hubbard has a low-volume day but vultures a touchdown or gets a big catch-and-run against a Buccaneers defense that is dreadful against RB targets, both RBs can get home in a game that is otherwise low-scoring.
Walder’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Bucky Irving ($13,800) is a talented enough player that he’s someone I’m always happy to back. In this game in particular I think he could have significant receiving production. The Panthers play zone 70% of the time, third most in the NFL. That matters here, because RB reception rates are almost twice as high when facing zone coverage compared to man.
Also in my lineup: Buccaneers D/ST ($4,000). Young has the second-worst QBR in the league this season against the blitz, with a dismal 38.6 on those plays. That’s a bad number against this Todd Bowles defense, which blitzes 33% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the league. That likely increases the possibility of a Bucs defensive score.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
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The Buccaneers are 0-8 ATS in their past eight games, the longest active ATS losing streak in the NFL and the longest streak in team history. It’s the longest single-season ATS losing streak since the 2020 Cowboys (8).
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The Panthers are 7-0 ATS after a loss this season. The Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS in their past six after a loss (2-6 ATS overall after loss).
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The Panthers have already won eight times as underdogs (8-6), tied with 2015 Washington (8-6) for the most underdog wins in a single season in the Super Bowl era.
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The Buccaneers are 1-6 ATS at home this season (overs: 6-1).
1:36
J.J. Watt: Mike Macdonald is a genius
J.J. Watt tells Pat McAfee about what makes the Seahawks so successful this season.
The 49ers have won six games in a row and defeated the Seahawks 17-13 way back in Week 1. Seattle is also riding a six-game winning streak.
The Seahawks are 1.5-point favorites over the 49ers on Saturday.
Game bet
Total points OVER 47.5 (-110)
Maldonado: Both offenses consistently move the ball, both defenses allow efficiency, and neither defense forces empty possessions. Drives end in points, and turnovers compress the field, raising scoring efficiency even when execution isn’t perfect.
Notable player props, bets
Brock Purdy over 242.5 passing yards (-113)
Bowen: Purdy has thrown for at least 295 yards in three straight games. There is a step up in competition here versus the Seattle defense, but look for Kyle Shanahan to scheme for Purdy on middle-of-the-field reads.
AJ Barner over 38.5 receiving yards (-114)
Loza: Barner has emerged as a legit threat over the middle of the field, managing at least 40 receiving yards in back-to-back outings and averaging 36.2 receiving yards over his past five games. He figures to flirt with 40 receiving yards versus a 49ers defense that has invited the second-most targets to opposing tight ends.
Sam Darnold over 238.5 passing yards (-113)
Moody: Darnold is within striking distance of a contract incentive if he surpasses 4,000 passing yards this season. With Jaxon Smith-Njigba and other capable receiving playmakers, he’s well equipped to do so. Darnold has cleared this line in six of his past 10 games. The 49ers’ defense has allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game this season.
Christian McCaffrey over 5.5 receptions (+113)
Solak: After an uproarious start to the season as a receiver, McCaffrey’s pass-catching volume has slowed as Purdy has settled back into the starting lineup. McCaffrey had at least six catches in each of his first seven games. Over his past nine games, he has cleared that number only three times. However, the 49ers have largely led those games and not needed to throw the football at a high volume. Now they’re 1.5-point underdogs to the Seahawks, whose defense is encouraging RB targets at a higher rate (20.6%) than any other defense in football.
McCaffrey had 9 catches on 10 targets for 73 yards when these teams met in Week 1 and, although the Seahawks will likely have a bit more specific of a game plan, McCaffrey isn’t the sort of player you just erase from the game altogether. For the potential that the 49ers trail the whole game and give McCaffrey a huge increase in volume, I’ll be taking 7+ and 8+ receptions as well on alt lines.
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
Bowen’s recommendations Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Christian McCaffrey ($17,700) has seen at least 23 touches in five straight games, so we know the volume will be there. And McCaffrey’s elite dual-threat skill set creates even more upside. Also in my lineup: Zach Charbonnet ($7,200) rushed for a season-best 110 yards last week in the win over Carolina, and he has at least one rushing score in both of his past two games. Loza’s recommendations Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Current reports indicate that George Kittle ($13,500) is expected to return in Week 18. With the NFC West title on the line, Kittle figures to be in peak form. He ranks second at the position in most fantasy points per game while managing the 11th-most fantasy points per game among TEs and WRs. Also in my lineup: AJ Barner ($3,700) presents solid value in Week 18. The Michigan product has found the end zone in two straight efforts. He should see plenty of red zone opportunities versus a 49ers defense that has surrendered 10 receiving scores (fifth most) to the position. Maldonado’s recommendations Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($17,400). Seattle’s passing game funnels through JSN. He gives you volume, explosive upside and red zone equity. In a game with a high total and division stakes, JSN has the cleanest combo of floor and game-breaking ceiling. Also in my lineup: Kenneth Walker III ($7,400) complements JSN, handling early-down work, producing explosive carries and staying involved even when Seattle leans pass-heavy. San Francisco’s defense bends, especially when forced to defend space laterally. Walker gives you touchdown equity and positive correlation without needing perfect efficiency. Moody’s recommendations Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Sam Darnold ($14,700) is within striking distance of contract incentives tied to multiple statistical milestones, including passing touchdowns (28) and passing yards (4,000). He needs three touchdown passes and 150 passing yards to reach those marks. Darnold is well positioned for success against a 49ers defense that ranks in the top half of the league in fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks. Also in my lineup: Barner ($3,700) has scored touchdowns and logged at least 13 fantasy points in back-to-back games. He has seen at least four targets in six of his past seven games and is looking like one of Darnold’s more trusted receiving options. With the NFC’s top seed on the line Saturday, Barner should remain heavily involved. The 49ers’ defense has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season. Solak’s recommendations Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): McCaffrey ($17,700). I’m not reinventing the wheel here. McCaffrey’s sky-high receiving potential, high-volume rushing usage and the 49ers’ propensity to score a ton of points make him the chalkiest CPT on the board. I’m hoping the enormous price tag squeezes him out of many lineups, and I’m correlating this selection with my bet on his receptions noted above. Also in my lineup: Barner ($3,700). I love sneaking in the TEs who take the “tush push” snaps into lineups as flex options, and Barner qualifies. He could vulture a rushing touchdown from Darnold or Walker, see heavy receiving volume as a safety valve option for the ever-flustered Darnold, or pop a big catch-and-score on one of Klint Kubiak’s clever offensive designs. Courtesy of ESPN Research The Seahawks are 14-2 outright and 11-5 ATS on the road under Mike Macdonald (7-1 outright and ATS this season). The 49ers are 6-0 outright and 5-1 ATS in their past six games since Brock Purdy returned from injury. They are 7-1 outright and 6-2 ATS in Purdy starts this season. The Seahawks are 11-4 ATS in their past 15 games. The 49ers are 5-0 outright and 4-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 this season.
Betting trends