Updated Feb. 25, 2026, 4:16 p.m. CT
IOWA CITY — While it may feel like a week for Iowa women’s basketball to breathe before the March Madness lights fully flip on, the Hawkeyes know focus can’t waver in this final regular-season stretch.
That challenge first begins with a late-night date against Illinois, scheduled for Feb. 26 inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena. No. 9 Iowa and the Fighting Illini both have sights set on keeping recent momentum rolling into next week’s Big Ten Tournament
“When you start to zone in on March Madness — and we’ve had some wins that may or may not be surprising — there are a few more eyes,” said Iowa coach Jan Jensen. “The expectations rise, and the target can’t even fit on our back anymore.
“So my job as a coach is to navigate that and keep it the same fun opportunity (against Illinois). We want to be respected. We want to be the team that’s sought after. We want the pressure. When you have the pressure, that means you’re good to a degree. So what do we do with that? That’s kind of my message. ‘Ok, now we’re here.'”
With that, here are three things to watch ahead of Thursday’s 8 p.m. Iowa-Illinois showdown.
How well can Iowa turn the page without getting ahead as March Madness inches closer?
After such an emotional scene with senior day and a riveting win over then-No. 5 Michigan, all blended together, it would be easy to feel like a hurdle has been cleared. The victory essentially locked up the Hawkeyes’ NCAA Tournament hosting bid and offered more evidence of a dangerous squad trending in the right direction.
However, Jensen has been at this a minute and knows how quickly things can spin the other direction when not everyone is dialed in. There’s still more on the table between now and Selection Sunday. How Iowa finishes things out from now to then could dictate a lot about the energy carried into the NCAA Tournament.
“We’ve done a pretty good staying in the lane. and utilizing pressure is a privilege for the positive,” said Jensen, repeating a virtue that was uttered often during the Caitlin Clark years. “Because right now with a lot of people, the tendency will be, ‘Oh, they got past Michigan. Now they have (easier games against) Illinois and Wisconsin (to end the regular season).’ And those of us in it know those games are actually almost harder. Everyone gets revved up for the big matchup — the underdog going at the big top-ranked (team). Now you kind of flip that.
“And our players, they understand that. But it’s that outside (noise). So I think you’ve just got to keep it what it is, a really great matchup that takes us a step closer to where we want to be.”
This situation is loosely similar to the one Iowa faced a few weeks ago, when it smashed then-No. 12 Ohio State on Jan. 25 for a third consecutive top-15 victory. The Hawkeyes picked up more national buzz after that win in front of another packed CHA Sunday crowd, only to follow up with three straight losses that featured uncharacteristic play.
The Hawkeyes need a better page turn this time.
How will the CHA reception be for Aaliyah Guyton in her return?
It hasn’t happened often, given Iowa’s lack of transfer-portal entries, but the Hawkeyes will see a familiar face on the other side against Illinois. Sophomore guard Aaliyah Guyton will make her return to Iowa City.
Guyton entered the transfer portal on March 31, and Illinois announced her signing on April 12. She averaged 16.4 minutes and 4.7 points per game in her freshman season at Iowa.
This year has produced similar production with small increases. Through 23 contests, Guyton is averaging 19.6 minutes, 6.4 points and 2.3 assists per game with eight starts. She recently delivered a career-high 22 points in Illinois’ 92-60 win over Wisconsin on Feb. 11.
Asked what Carver-Hawkeye Arena’s reaction will be to Guyton coming back, Jensen hoped for as pleasant a return as possible.
“It’s a new era, and kids and their families sometimes want a little bit different situation,” Jensen said. “I think Aaliyah Guyton is a really cool kid. She is a really great player, so I have nothing but respect for her. And man, she’s playing so well.
“So I would hope our fans wouldn’t do that. I don’t think our fans typically do that. I’m sure there will be a few (who’ll boo her) trying to be supportive (of Iowa), I suppose, but I can’t control that. When the ball is tipped, Aaliyah will be playing for the Illini. We’ll be trying to protect home court. It’s just part of the job now.”
Although the situations are infrequent, there’s a high standard when it comes to former Hawkeyes’ performances in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. The most noteworthy of course is Lauren Jensen, who hit the game-winning 3-pointer for Creighton late in the Bluejays’ NCAA Tournament upset over Iowa in 2022.
Here’s a look at how recent ex-Hawkeyes have done when facing Iowa.
- Shateah Wetering (UNI); 28 minutes, 11 points, 3 rebounds in 92-86 loss (12/20/24); 25 minutes, 4 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist in 94-53 loss (11/12/23).
- Megan Meyer (Drake): 33 minutes, 11 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 5 turnovers in 92-86 OT loss (11/13/22).
- Lauren Jensen (Creighton): 36 minutes, 19 points, 7 rebounds and 3-for-7 from deep in 64-62 NCAA Tournament win (3/20/22).
Can Iowa’s defensive restoration continue against the post-heavy Fighting Illini?
After successfully chasing Michigan’s guard-heavy attack around, Iowa will get a different challenge from Illinois.
The Fighting Illini are definitely paint-heavy, with underclassmen forwards Berry Wallace (18.8 ppg) and Cearah Parchment (13.6 ppg) leading the way. Combined with Gretchen Dolan’s season-ending injury at point guard, and Iowa is readying for a fierce interior battle.
“Her bigs are versatile,” Jensen said. “They can hit the 3, and they just don’t hit a trail 3. They’ll come off a flair, and that’s a lot different for a ‘5’ to handle. It’s hard enough to just handle a transition 3 when a ‘5’ comes down — and if you sag too far back or go to the block in transition and they can pop it. That’s stressful enough.
“Their actions put your bigs in guard defensive actions. That’s very challenging. Think Minnesota.”
That’s an eerie comparison considering the Golden Gophers shot 10-for-14 from deep in their Iowa City win. Hannah Stuelke’s defensive versatility will be especially crucial on Thursday.
Iowa women’s basketball vs. Illinois prediction
The Hawkeyes get all they can handle against an Illinois squad most recently projected as an NCAA Tournament No. 8 seed by ESPN. But steady production via Ava Heiden, plus more defensive and rebounding dominance from Stuelke, successfully push Iowa across the finish line. Look for a rebound performance from Chit-Chat Wright as well after two tough games. Iowa 72, Illinois 65.
Dargan Southard is a sports trending reporter and covers Iowa athletics for the Des Moines Register and HawkCentral.com. Email him at msouthard@gannett.com or follow him on Twitter at @Dargan_Southard.