Feb. 10, 2026, 8:40 a.m. CT
Relentless NCAA Tournament forecasting starts to have value once the college basketball calendar flips to February. March Madness hypotheticals that begin in November are suddenly much closer to becoming reality.
Most of those predictions regarding Iowa women’s basketball remain strong entering the Hawkeyes’ Feb. 11 showdown vs. Washington. Although Iowa’s three-game losing streak has seen Jan Jensen’s team slide from tied for first to fourth in the Big Ten standings — along with dropping seven spots to No. 15 in the AP poll — the Hawkeyes remain firmly in the NCAA Tournament hosting discussion as a top-four seed.
That’s really where Iowa’s March Madness forecasting starts. While the Hawkeyes have opportunities remaining to enhance their NCAA Tournament positioning, staying a top-four seed to ensure postseason games at Carver-Hawkeye Arena is the clear-cut top objective.
So how does Iowa get there? Let’s take a look at where the Hawkeyes sit and what needs to happen down the stretch.
Where does Iowa women’s basketball currently stand in the NCAA Tournament hosting picture?
ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme has projected Iowa as an NCAA Tournament host since late November, moving the Hawkeyes up and down between a No. 2 and No. 4 seed. Iowa checks in as a No. 3 seed ahead of the Washington showdown, having dropped just one seed line despite this skid.
Although the Hawkeyes have undoubtedly used up some wiggle room these last two weeks, a swing around the hosting bubble is a favorable Iowa reveal.
The Hawkeyes are currently 4-0 against Creme’s other Nos. 3, 4 and 5 seeds, having toppled Ohio State, Michigan State, Maryland and Baylor. Head-to-head isn’t everything, but it’s an optics point in Iowa’s favor if nothing else.
Actual metrics reflect favorably for Iowa as well. The Hawkeyes sit 15th in the NET with a 6-5 Quad 1 record as of Feb. 10. Where exactly do those numbers need to finish to secure a hosting spot? An examination of last season’s hosting bubble shows the Hawkeyes are still right on track.
Of the No. 4 seeds (Baylor, Kentucky, Ohio State, Maryland) and No. 5 seeds (Ole Miss, Alabama, Tennessee, Kansas State) from the 2025 bracket, all eight played at least 10 Quad 1 games. But only Maryland finished with a winning record in them. Furthermore, all those teams finished with a NET ranking between ninth and 26th.
Despite fans’ urge to panic amid this extended stumble, that shows Iowa doesn’t need a ton of resume enhancement down the stretch to have postseason games in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes just need to avoid a catastrophic collapse.
What must Iowa women’s basketball do in its six remaining regular-season games to secure a hosting spot?
As of Feb. 10, here’s how the metrics look for Iowa’s six remaining regular-season foes.
- Feb. 11 vs. Washington (18-6, NET 31)
- Feb. 16 at Nebraska (16-8, NET 25)
- Feb. 19 at Purdue (11-13, NET 71)
- Feb. 22 vs. Michigan (20-4, NET 6)
- Feb. 26 vs. Illinois (16-8, NET 34)
- March 1 at Wisconsin (13-11, NET 79)
Nebraska and Michigan are Quad 1 games, while the other four are Quad 2 affairs as of now. Iowa almost certainly has at least one regular-season loss left to play with to remain on the right side of the hosting bubble, but when and where it comes varies the impact significantly.
If Iowa’s next loss comes against Washington, then the Hawkeyes probably need to win all remaining Quad 2 games and take one of the Quad 1 affairs. If Iowa somehow stumbles at Purdue or Wisconsin, then that really needs to be the only loss over these final six.
If Iowa next falls at Nebraska, the Hawkeyes could really use a 3-1 finish from there with the only loss being to Michigan. If Iowa’s next loss doesn’t come until Michigan or Illinois, all the Hawkeyes need is to win what remains.
Things will tighten up should Iowa drop more than one regular-season game left. Falling to Nebraska and Michigan would be the least damaging to Iowa’s resume, but beating the highly ranked Wolverines could offset a coin-flip loss somewhere else.
There’s obviously the Big Ten Tournament to factor in as well. Depending on how the Hawkeyes close the regular season, avoiding a potentially bad loss there could be as important as landing another sizeable win. Ideally, Iowa wants to avoid heading to Indianapolis with hosting work still left.
How significant is Iowa women’s basketball hosting NCAA Tournament games?
Don’t be fooled by the Minnesota outcome, which nearly became Iowa’s fourth double-digit home loss in the last eight seasons before a late Hawkeyes rally. The 91-85 stumble is a Carver-Hawkeye Arena anomaly until proven otherwise.
Iowa will need every bit of its home support when the season goes on the line, especially with a talented unit short on high-end NCAA Tournament experience. Even Caitlin Clark-led teams had to ride the Carver-Hawkeye Arena vibes to survive second-round struggles against Georgia and West Virginia. You want every weapon on your side when that March Madness intensity hits.
Starting the NCAA Tournament at home could mean the difference in reaching the second weekend or not, considering the alternative is likely a true road game to go to the Sweet 16 as Iowa dealt with last season at Oklahoma.
Even in road games they’ve won this year like Northwestern, Indiana and Maryland, the Hawkeyes have looked much more wobbly away from Carver-Hawkeye Arena. It’s not hard to envision this season ending with an abrupt second-round thud if the hosting goal isn’t met.
Still, there’s no reason for Iowa to panic in that regard. And if the Hawkeyes finish with authority down the stretch, a more favorable NCAA Tournament path awaits that would likely avoid a No. 1 seed giant until the Elite Eight. The Hawkeyes are just as close to that right now as they are to slipping out of the hosting scene.
A rebound is certainly needed against Washington. The Hawkeyes can then get back on track to delivering a proper ending to a campaign full of positive moments.
Dargan Southard is a sports trending reporter and covers Iowa athletics for the Des Moines Register and HawkCentral.com. Email him at msouthard@gannett.com or follow him on Twitter at @Dargan_Southard.