Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures rise as oil retreats ahead of PCE inflation data

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Stocks steadied on Friday after a headlong sell-off as investors assessed the latest moves in a still-hot Iran conflict ahead of an inflation reading key to Federal Reserve policy thinking.

Contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) and the S&P 500 (ES=F) both gained 0.4%. Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) were also up 0.4% in bumpy premarket action.

The respite comes as investors weigh how long and how wide the Iran war will rage in the Middle East, as the conflict marks its second week. Israel launched fresh attacks on Tehran on Friday, while Tehran is seen as behind missile strikes on Dubai and Turkey. Meanwhile, the US said four crew were killed when a military refueling plane crashed.

The escalating conflict has driven a sharp rise in oil prices that has destabilized markets, sending the three major US stock benchmarks to their lowest closing levels of 2026 — and their lowest points since November — on Thursday.

In the latest effort to cool the rally, the US gave a second waiver for purchases of sanctioned Russian crude. With Iran’s new leader vowing to keep the key Strait of Hormuz waterway closed, analysts said the move could ease but not fix what’s seen as the largest oil supply disruption in history.

Crude prices pulled back on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate futures (CL=F) down 2% to below $94 a barrel. Meanwhile, Brent crude futures (BZ=F) retreated under $100 after settling above that key level for the first time since August 2022.

The gains for oil, combined with renewed inflation worries, have shifted expectations around Fed policy. Traders have scaled back bets that the central bank will cut interest rates this year.

That has put the spotlight on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. The January update is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET. Also due is the first revision of fourth quarter GDP growth, after the measure came in sharply under expectations in an initial reading.

After a dismal February jobs report, investors will pay close attention to Friday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey (JOLTs). A first look at consumer confidence in March from the University of Michigan will also offer a broad read on consumer sentiment.

LIVE 7 updates

  • Fourth quarter GDP growth revised lower to 0.7%, slowing significantly from Q3

    US economic growth slowed more than initially thought in the fourth quarter of last year.

    The real gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter was revised to 0.7% growth from a previous reading of 1.4%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday. That previous reading of 1.4% also marked a deceleration from the 4.4% growth in the third quarter of 2025.

    Increases in consumer spending and investment supported growth in the final three months of the year, while decreases in government spending and exports weighed on growth. However, exports accelerated again in January (not figured into fourth quarter GDP) as the US’s trade deficit decreased by 25% that month.

  • Jake Conley

    Fed’s preferred measure of inflation rises 0.4% in January, in line with estimates

    Prices rose by 0.3% in January over the previous month, according to Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index data released Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

    The growth was in line with economists’ expectations of 0.3%, according to Bloomberg’s consensus estimates, and below December’s 0.4% month-on-month gain.

    “Core” PCE, which excludes the more volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.4% on the month, in line with the previous month’s 0.4% growth. Economists had also predicted that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure would rise by 0.4%.

    On an annual basis, the headline and core PCE price indexes rose 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively, in December from the previous year. Economists had expected annual growth of 2.9% and 3.1% for the two measures.

    Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.4% in December on a monthly basis, above the previous month’s growth of 0.3% and below economists’ expectations of 0.5%

    Personal spending increased 0.4% from last month, coming in above expectations of 0.3% but in line with the previous month’s growth of 0.4%.

  • Gold heads for weekly drop

    Gold (GC=F) headed for its second weekly decline as crude oil traded near $100 per barrel amid the war in the Middle East. Higher oil prices have raised inflationary expectations, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts.

    The precious metal traded just under $5,100 an ounce, while the dollar strengthened, with the dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) hitting the key psychological 100 level.

    Bloomberg reports:

    Read more here.

  • Jenny McCall

    Premarket trending tickers: Dick’s Sporting Goods, Strategy, Coinbase, and SentinelOne

    sDick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) stock fell 6% during premarket hours on Friday following the release of its upbeat fourth quarter earnings on Thursday. However, the retailer’s guidance for the current fiscal year was mixed, with the company’s adjusted per-share earnings of $13.50 to 14.50 falling short of analysts’ estimates of $14.82.

    Strategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN) stocks rose around 3% before the bell on Friday, following bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) 2% rise today.

    SentinelOne (S) stock fell 5% during premarket hours on Friday after the cybersecurity firm reported upbeat fourth quarter earnings for revenue, which met analysts’ targets, but the company’s April quarter guidance was only in line with estimates.

  • Ulta stock falls after beauty retailer issues cautious guidance

    Ulta (ULTA) stock declined 8% in premarket trading on Friday as investors were disappointed by the beauty retailer’s tepid 2026 guidance and fourth quarter earnings miss.

    For the full year, Ulta forecast earnings per share of $28.05 to $28.55, which fell below Wall Street’s expectations for earnings of $28.57, according to consensus estimates from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

    Investors were focused on Ulta’s guidance going into the earnings report after a year of investment in 2025. Ulta’s same-store sales outlook of 2.5% to 3.5% had a midpoint below the expected 3.5% comparable sales guidance, raising questions about pressure on operating margins.

    In the fourth quarter, diluted earnings per share of $8.01 also missed Wall Street’s $8.03 estimate. Revenue of $3.89 billion beat estimates of $3.82 billion. Same-store sales were up 5.8% year over year.

  • ByteDance signs $2.5b deal for Nvidia chips outside of China

    Bloomberg reports:

    Read more here.

  • Adobe stock drops after CEO announces departure after 18 years at helm

    Yahoo Finance’s Dan Howley reports:

    Read more here.

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