Crystal Palace know exactly what they have to do, but putting it into practice has been their biggest problem this season.
They host AEK Larnaca in the first leg of a UEFA Conference League round of 16 tie on Thursday, seeking to avenge their surprise 1-0 defeat to the Cypriot team at Selhurst Park in the competition’s league phase.
Palace struggled to penetrate Larnaca’s low block that October night, and when their chances did come, they were wasted.
“It’s a little bit of deja vu,” manager Oliver Glasner said in his post-match press conference. “It has happened in many games where we’ve created situations but don’t score enough and are punished. That’s what we have to learn and improve.
“We had 15 shots and just one was on target. If we need five clear chances and don’t score, we’ll try to create seven, eight or nine after.”
AEK Larnaca’s Zlatan Alomerovic turns a shot from Eddie Nketiah aside at Selhurst Park (Henry Nicholls/AFP via Getty Images)
Profligacy was clearly a major issue that night against Larnaca but for Palace to avoid defeat again, this time over two legs and with a quarter-finals place at stake, they will need to improve more than just their finishing.
Their play was too passive back in the autumn. They were not sufficiently aggressive out of possession and had nobody prepared to run at the Larnaca defence, while off-the-ball movement and passing were too limited and slow. When Palace lost possession, which was an infrequent occurrence given they enjoyed 68 per cent of the ball on the night, they did not harry and chase enough to regain it.
On one of the rare times they did manage to do so, it almost created a goal with Jean-Philippe Mateta ultimately heading a Daniel Munoz cross against the crossbar. January signing Evann Guessand showed in the 3-1 Premier League win against Tottenham Hotspur last Thursday what can be done when Palace turn the ball over high up the pitch with aggressive pressing.
Glasner has traditionally found it difficult to break down low blocks in his two years as Palace manager, but he is far from alone in that among his profession. There is a reason teams play a system in which they aim to defend resolutely and hit their opponents at the first hint of weakness.
Right centre-back Jaydee Canvot’s poor pass under pressure allowed Larnaca to take advantage last time round, as they intercepted that ball and Riad Bajic shot into the top of Dean Henderson’s net to score the only goal of the game early in the second half.
But Palace did create opportunities, with a final expected goals (xG) figure of 1.76 from their 15 shots compared to Larnaca’s 0.2 from four. That 1.76 xG is actually more than the average (1.5) for Premier League teams in top-flight games over the past three seasons.
Yet it was the visitors who ended the match with more shots on target, two to one. Ultimately, it was Palace’s failure in front of goal, compounded by a self-inflicted defensive error, that cost Glasner and company.
If they can score first at Selhurst tomorrow, it would put them in an excellent position in the tie. They would force Larnaca to come at them more, likely leaving more space to exploit and a greater opportunity to attack in those transitional situations where this side thrive.
Jean-Philippe Mateta finds himself crowded out against Larnaca (Warren Little/Getty Images)
Taking a lead into next Thursday’s second leg would also settle nerves in a team which has been fragile, even if their confidence and momentum have started to creep back of late.
There is a likely benefit, too, in the changed personnel since October’s game.
Mateta is expected to return to the squad for the first time since the 3-1 league loss to Chelsea on January 25 as his knee injury has settled down, but would only be included on the bench, meaning winter-window buy Jorgen Strand Larsen is likely to start up front.
Their profiles as strikers are notably different and while Mateta had Palace’s best chances last time against Larnaca, Strand Larsen feels like a more suitable fit in this kind of contest. Having the Frenchman as an option off the bench, adding to their potential firepower, would also be advantageous.
Mateta hit the bar after twisting his body to reach Munoz’s cross, which had been parried by goalkeeper Zlatan Alomerovic. That chance, according to FotMob data, had an xG of 0.24. It came after Palace quickly closed down Larnaca with three players high up the pitch to win the ball back.
Mateta’s other big opportunity that night came in the 70th minute when he was denied by Alomerovic after meeting Eddie Nketiah’s cutback in the six-yard box, with his sight of goal blocked by the ’keeper and recovering defenders. That chance had an xG number of 0.45.
Strand Larsen might have found the net in that same situation, although whether he would have found himself in such a position to begin with is less certain.
Maxence Lacroix also headed wide from a Will Hughes free kick in first-half stoppage time…
…stooping low under pressure from a defender and making decent contact, but failing to hit the target.
With 10 minutes of the 90 to go, Nketiah completely mishit the ball when well placed after Mateta headed it down inside the six-yard box.
Those combined chances were rated at 0.37.
Aside from those two Mateta efforts and perhaps Nketiah’s one late on, Palace did not create especially threatening opportunities, but were wasteful when they did. The urgency with which they played only increased towards the later part of the game as they trailed in what was the club’s first-ever home fixture in UEFA competition proper, following the August qualifier against Fredrikstad of Norway, with the defence playing passes more quickly across the back line, or forwards more often.
For this rematch they are obviously without Marc Guehi, sold to Manchester City in January, so will lack his ability to carry the ball out of defence as well as the quality of his long-range passing. They do, however, have Aston Villa loanee Guessand to call upon in the No 10 role.
The 24-year-old France-born Ivory Coast international could prove to be a key player in this tie. His confidence is likely to be elevated after a promising start to his career at Palace, and he is the most direct ball-carrier in the team — someone who is prepared to run at defences and create space that way.
If Glasner opts instead to pick Brennan Johnson from the start, then he might complement Ismaila Sarr in running beyond the back line. That would require creating those spaces in the first instance, but there were times in the October game that Palace set Munoz free down the right, while Hughes was sufficiently aware to be able to play in Sarr in the first half.
Palace have more options this time round and should be wary of making the same mistakes again, particularly now that they know how their opponents will play. Over a two-legged tie, they are better placed to come through and make it into the competition’s last eight, where they would face Fiorentina of Italy or Poland’s Rakow next month.
Efficiency, as Glasner has so often made clear, will be crucial.