As America marks its 250th year, the nation finds itself in uncharted territory — not just tightening its borders, but watching people walk out the door. For the first time in decades, the United States may have become a country people leave more than enter. That is the central finding of a January 2026 report by researchers at the Brookings Institution, which estimates that net migration to the United States turned negative in 2025 — a reversal not seen since 1935 amid the Great Depression that began in 1929, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The Brookings report, authored by senior fellows Wendy Edelberg, Stan Veuger, and Tara Watson, estimates that net migration for 2025 fell to somewhere between negative 295,000 and negative 10,000. The researchers describe it as “the first time in at least half a century” that the figure has gone negative, driven by a sharp decline in arrivals and a simultaneous increase in departures through deportations and voluntary exits.
Trump admin tom-toms it as policy achievement
The Trump administration has pointed to the shift as evidence that its immigration crackdown is working.
Since returning to office, President Trump has ramped up deportations, suspended much of the refugee admissions program, ended humanitarian parole pathways for migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, and imposed new visa restrictions. US border encounters — attempted a term for entries — fell dramatically through 2025, news agencies have noted.
How Brookings report explains it
The Brookings analysis reveals a more complicated picture. While deportations rose to an estimated 310,000 to 315,000 in 2025 — only modestly higher than the roughly 285,000 removed in 2024 — the bigger driver of negative net migration was simply fewer people arriving.
- Refugee admissions, which stood at around 105,000 in 2024, collapsed to between 7,600 and 12,000.
- Humanitarian parole entries, which totaled 1.41 million in 2024, plummeted to roughly 67,000 to 70,000.
- The number of green cards issued abroad fell by over 20 percent.
The Brookings report found that between 210,000 and 405,000 immigrants left voluntarily in 2025 beyond normal emigration patterns, responding to the intensified enforcement and even violence by the federal agency ICE.
Some left fearing detention or family separation. Others, including international students and skilled workers, chose different countries rather than navigate an increasingly uncertain visa environment.
Meanwhile, as WSJ reported, it is not only immigrants who are leaving.
American citizens themselves are departing in record numbers, relocating abroad in search of more affordable living conditions and greater safety.
What the pattern means for US
The economic consequences of negative net migration are significant. The Brookings researchers note that in recent years, nearly all growth in the US labor force had come from immigration. With that pipeline now sharply reduced, the so-called “breakeven” level of monthly job creation — the number needed to keep the unemployment rate stable — has fallen dramatically.
The report estimates breakeven employment growth at just 20,000 to 50,000 jobs per month in the second half of 2025.
In 2026, that figure could turn negative, meaning fewer workers would need to be added each month simply to keep pace with a shrinking labor force.
Consumer spending is expected to take a hit as well. Brookings projects that reduced immigration will result in $40–60 billion less in consumer spending in 2025, with a further $10–40 billion reduction in 2026 — a combined cut of up to $110 billion over two years.
“Certain parts of the economy will see unexpectedly weak economic activity, such as businesses that serve part of the affected immigrant population,” the report notes. “Such weakness is the new normal under current immigration policy.”