SDSU vs. Colorado State
What: Mountain West Tournament quarterfinal
When: 6 p.m. Thursday
Where: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas
TV: CBS Sports Network
Radio: 760-AM
Records: SDSU is 20-10, 14-6; CSU is 21-11, 11-9
Series history: SDSU leads 54-46 and has won seven of the last 10, including 73-50 at Viejas Arena on Jan. 28. Colorado State won 83-74 at Moby Arena on Feb. 21. Their last meeting in the conference tournament was a 64-61 Aztecs victory in the 2023 quarterfinals.
Aztecs update: They come to their final Mountain West tournament almost certainly needing to win it to reach a sixth straight NCAA Tournament. The Kenpom metric gives them a 38.4% chance of making the championship game and a 20% chance of winning it. Utah State is given a 31% chance, followed by New Mexico (15.7%), Grand Canyon (11.1%) and Boise State (9.5%). The Aztecs last needed to win the conference tournament in coach Brian Dutcher’s first two seasons, winning in 2018 and losing in the final in 2019. Of their seven conference tournament titles, only one has come with an offense ranked outside the top 80 nationally, and that was 104th back in 2002. The Aztecs are currently 88th in Kenpom offensive efficiency. They are 17-1 in their last 18 quarterfinals, although that loss came last year against Boise State. Dutcher gave his players Saturday and Sunday off before returning to practice Monday. Reese Dixon-Waters and Miles Byrd are both banged up but have been practicing. Freshman guard Elzie Harrington has not and is considered doubtful.
Rams update: They are the hottest team in the Mountain West, winning nine of the last 10. The highlight was an 82-74 win in The Pit at New Mexico in which they led by 19. They also won at UNLV and beat SDSU at home during their eight-game win streak. In Wednesday’s quarterfinals, they trailed much of the night against 10th-seeded Fresno State before squeaking out a 67-63 decision. Washington transfer Jace Butler had 17 of his 20 points in the second half after making a career-high six 3s. Forward Carey Booth, who had a career-high 22 in the Feb. 21 game against SDSU, added 18. The Rams excel in offense (hovering around the top 50 in the nation) and not so much on defense (near 200). They’d be even more effective on offense if it wasn’t for a high turnover rate, ranking 289th nationally in that department at 18.4% of possessions (although they had only nine turnovers against Fresno State). Only five teams shoot it better than their 39.4% behind the arc. The Rams are 84 in Kenpom and 87 in the NET. Kenpom projects a 75-50 Aztecs win.
Next up: The winner plays in Mountain West semifinals on Friday (9 p.m., CBSSN)
— MARK ZEIGLER