Canada’s ruling Liberal Party is expected to finally reach the majority figure following three by-elections to the House of Commons in mid-April, diminishing chances of mid-term polls.
The Liberals have already gained four MPs without an election through defections. On Tuesday, New Democratic Party (NDP) MP Lori Idlout, who represents Nunavut, became the latest to switch parties. The announcement of her defection came from NDP’s interim leader Don Davies, who said in a statement, “We’re very disappointed that Lori Idlout has decided to join the Liberal caucus.” The three MPs who defected earlier were all from the principal opposition Conservative Party.
After a disastrous campaign in 2024 under then leader Jagmeet Singh, NDP’s seats dropped from 25 in 2021 to just seven and that number now decreases to six.
The Liberals currently have 170 seats in the House, tied with the opposition. However, Prime Minister Mark Carney has called by-elections to three ridings (as constituencies are called in Canada) on April 13. Two of them, Scarborough Southwest and University Rosedale, are in Toronto and are considered safe for the ruling party, and winning them will take the party to the majority mark of 172 in the House which has a strength of 543.
The two seats in Toronto became open following the departure from politics of former deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland and former defence minister Bill Blair.
The third, Terrebonne in Quebec, was also won by a Liberal in the April 2025 federal election but by just a vote. A challenge to the result led to the Supreme Court invalidating the outcome, precipitating the by-elections.
The three by-elections scheduled for April have also diminished speculation about a potential snap election in the spring, given that Carney’s popularity has grown and his party’s lead over the Conservatives is comfortably over double digits. Recent surveys have suggested the Liberals could garner over 200 seats if they chose to go to the hustings.
A March 6 poll from the agency Nanos gave the Liberals 46% support as against 33% for the Conservatives. Carney was the preferred PM choice of 57% of the respondents.
Earlier this month, another survey, from Leger, showed the Liberals had 49% backing, with the Conservatives trailing at 35%.
In the 2025 election, the Liberals captured 169 seats, up from nine in 2021, and the Conservatives grew their presence from 119 to 144.