The 98th Academy Awards are upon us. The biggest night in Hollywood is this Sunday (Monday morning in India), when the best performers, technicians, and films of 2025 will receive due recognition. The Oscars are the culmination of Hollywood’s awards season, which comprises other major awards like the Golden Globes, the Actors (formerly SAG Awards), and, to an extent, the BAFTAs.
Every year, pundits and publications make predictions for the Oscars based on their expertise, the grapevine, and sometimes just vibes. But what if all that could be collated into hard numbers? HT attempts to look at the trends, based on previous winners (and their track records), how contenders fared at the other big four – Golden Globes, SAG, BAFTA, and Critics’ Choice, along with the predictions from Hollywood bookmakers.
All this gives us a probability for each nominee, with some scoring higher than others, allowing us to make predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. A top finish in any table gets maximum chance of winning, followed by positions 2 and 3. For instance, if Jessie Buckley leads in 9 out 10 predictions/awards, she gets a 90% probability. And if Jacob Elordi finishes third in five tables, it gives him a 15% chance of winning, and so on. Combined, this gives us a mathematical probability of each contender’s win.
Best Picture: One Battle After Another with 60% chances
Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has a 6 in 10 shot at winning the Best Picture this year. However, Sinners has closed the gap with a chance of around 30%. Yet, most predictions (barring Variety) believe that it has left too much to do in the fag end of the awards season.
Best Actor: Michael B Jordan with 40% chances
Who would have thunk that opera and ballet would cost Timothee Chalamet an Oscar? The actor was the favourite for the top acting honour for his performance in Marty Supreme when the awards season began. But now, with recent controversy and a growing chorus around the exploits of Michael B Jordan, the scales have tilted in the Sinners star’s favour. Jordan, the winner of Best Actor at the SAG Awards, leads with a 40% probability, with Chalamet close behind at 35%.
Best Actress: Jessie Buckley with 90% chances
If there is one award that is a foregone conclusion at this year’s Oscars, it is the Best Actress. For her riveting act in Hamnet, Jessie Buckley is the odds-on favourite with 90% chances of winning. Rose Byrne trails way behind at 5%.
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson with 50% chances
It is quite common for the director of Best Picture to win the Best Director award at the Oscars, and Anderson is primed for that. As per bookmakers, he remains the favourite even as Ryan Coogler is closing in (25% and increasing). But with only a few days to go, it looks like the odds are in Paul Thomas Anderson’s favour.
Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn with 40% chances
This is a category that has turned from having a clear favourite to one a with three-horse race. Sean Penn is still the frontrunner, but Stellan Skarsgard (25%) and Delroy Lindo (20%) have also increased their chances. Even Jacob Elordi (15%) has an outside chance here.
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan with 40% chances
Amy Madigan’s win for Weapons, if it happens, will be special, because her film Weapons is not predicted to win any other award. That is the only reason bookmakers are giving her lower than usual chances, even though the track record is in her favour. Both Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku (both 25%) are hot on her heels.
Best Animated Feature: K Pop Demon Hunters with 70% chances
Another category where the winner is all but decided is the animated feature. Despite Zootopia 2’s success, K Pop Demon Hunters is an odds-on-favourite here as the first choice of almost all major bookmakers. It has a 60-point lead, indicating almost certain victory.
Best International Feature: The Secret Agent with 33% chances
The closest category after the Best Actor is Best International Feature, where two films have almost similar chances. Brazilian film The Secret Agent is only slightly ahead of Norwegian drama Sentimental Value (30%), and The Voice of Hind Rajab is also in the running. The category is usually hard to predict, which makes for some stunning upsets on the awards night.
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony, presented by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, will take place on March 15, 2026, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Los Angeles