A large NASA satellite is set to crash back to Earth on Tuesday (March 10) after nearly 14 years in orbit, according to experts.
The satellite is the 1,323-pound (600-kilogram) Van Allen Probe A, which was launched in August 2012 alongside its twin, Van Allen Probe B, to investigate the radiation belts surrounding Earth that bear their name.
Both satellites were deactivated in 2019, and the time for Van Allen Probe A’s return to Earth is now nearly at hand. As of Monday afternoon (March 9), the U.S. Space Force has predicted that the satellite will reenter Earth’s atmosphere on Tuesday at 7:45 p.m. EDT (2345 GMT), with a margin of error of plus or minus 24 hours.
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NASA satellite crash: Is there a risk of being hit?
“NASA expects most of the spacecraft to burn up as it travels through the atmosphere, but some components are expected to survive reentry,” officials from NASA stated in an update on Monday. “The risk of harm coming to anyone on Earth is low — approximately 1 in 4,200.”
The low risk of injury — approximately 0.02% — considers the fact that water covers about 70% of Earth’s surface. Therefore, any components that survive reentry are likely to land in the open ocean rather than in or near urban areas.
The estimated reentry time provided by the Space Force is merely an estimate. It will be revised in the coming hours as more accurate data becomes available.
All on NASA’s misison
The mission was originally intended to last only two years, but the spacecraft continued to operate until July 2019 (Probe B) and October 2019 (Probe A). They collected data that scientists and mission planners are still analyzing today.
“By reviewing archived data from the mission, scientists study the radiation belts surrounding Earth, which are key to predicting how solar activity impacts satellites, astronauts, and even systems on Earth such as communications, navigation and power grids,” NASA further said. “By observing these dynamic regions, the Van Allen Probes contributed to improving forecasts of space weather events and their potential consequences.”
Both probes were anticipated to remain in Earth’s orbit until 2034. However, the sun has exhibited unexpected activity in recent years, leading to an expansion of our planet’s atmosphere and an increase in frictional drag on satellites in orbit.
These effects have probably reduced the duration of Van Allen Probe B’s mission in space as well, though not as significantly as its counterpart. According to NASA, Probe B is not expected to reenter the atmosphere before 2030.