MSU basketball at Michigan prediction, preview, TV, betting line -

March 7, 2026, 4:34 p.m. ET

• What: Michigan State vs. Michigan

• When: 4:30 p.m. Sunday

• Where: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor

• TV/Radio: CBS/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 196 (MSU broadcast), 81 (Michigan broadcast)

• Records/Rankings: MSU is 25-5 overall, 15-4 in the Big Ten, and ranked No. 8 in both the Associated Press and USA TODAY Coaches polls. The Spartans are No. 11 in the NET rankings and No. 10 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Michigan is 28-2 overall, 18-1 in the Big Ten, and ranked No. 3 in both major polls, while being No. 2 in the NET rankings and No. 2 by Kenpom.

• Betting line: Michigan -10.5

• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 762-307 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Michigan — Dusty May is 181-81 in his eighth season as a head coach, including 55-12 in his second season with the Wolverines. He previously spent six seasons at Florida Atlantic.

• Series: Michigan leads 105-92 all-time. The Wolverines won the first meeting this season, 83-71, on Jan. 30 in East Lansing.

Projected lineups

MSU

C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 10.4

PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 12.5

SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 11.7

SG (6) Jordan Scott (6-7) 6.0

PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 15.3

Michigan

C (15) Aday Mara (7-3) 11.5

F (21) Morez Johnson (6-9) 13.5

F (23) Yaxel Lendeborg (6-9) 14.3

G (4) Nimari Burnett (6-5) 8.3

PG (3) Elliot Cadeau (6-1) 10.1

• MSU update: The Spartans’ nervous finish and narrow win against Rutgers on Thursday night kept MSU in line for a No. 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA tournament and a No. 2 or 3 seed in the Big Ten tournament. The close margin did affect their Kenpom ranking (dropping from No. 8 to 10), but if Tom Izzo trying to get his seniors in the game with a 15-point lead in the final two minutes hurts the Spartans’ NCAA tournament seed, then the whole process needs an overhaul. I don’t imagine it’ll have any impact. More important to NCAA tournament seeding is probably MSU’s performance against Michigan and first game at the Big Ten tournament. Also of note: If the Spartans beat the Wolverines or if Nebraska loses its finale Sunday against Iowa, MSU will be the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten tourney next week in Chicago. Otherwise, the Spartans will be the 3 seed.

MSU’s offensive efficiency ranking continues to climb — up to No. 30, per Kenpom. The Spartans are still in the top 10 defensively (No. 8). That matters if you’re hoping the Spartans have a chance to do something special in the NCAA tournament. Only one national champion since 1997 has had an offensive or defensive efficiency ranking outside of the top 22.

MORE: Couch: 3 quick takes on Michigan State basketball’s 91-87 win and dicey finish against Rutgers

• Michigan update: The Wolverines are coming off a close call at Iowa on Thursday night, winning 71-68, to become the first team in 50 years to complete the Big Ten season with an undefeated road record. Michigan had already locked up the Big Ten championship and almost certainly a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Wolverines are the No. 2 defense and No. 5 offense nationally, per Kenpom. They are, however, a little less deep than they were last time they faced the Spartans, having lost sophomore guard L.J. Cason (8.4 ppg) to a torn ACL last week. Cason was playing really well off the bench. That said, if there’s any team in the country that can withstand such an injury, it’s probably this Michigan team.

• Matchup analysis: Beyond the matchup between the two teams, there is a matchup within the matchup: Jeremy Fears Jr. vs. Yaxel Lendeborg. Those are the two favorites for Big Ten player of the year. Sunday’s game is one more data point for each of them, on the same court. Both are deserving. Fears is the engine behind the 25-win, second-place Spartans. He makes it all go. He leads the nation in assists and MSU in scoring. He’s been everything for the Spartans. Lendeborg has been the perceived best player on a historic Big Ten team — though one could argue for Morez Johnson’s overall impact. Lendeborg shouldn’t be punished for having more talent around him. It’s a tough call. Maybe Sunday’s game makes the decision.

In terms of the actual game, MSU will need to be better from beyond the arc than they were in the first meeting, when the Spartans made just 4 of 23 3-point tries. They also probably can’t turn the ball over 14 times and come away with a road win in Ann Arbor. If they can get a big night from someone outside of Fears — perhaps Kur Teng hitting 3s, Jordan Scott breaking out of a mini-slump, Coen Carr having the impact he did Thursday, Jaxon Kohler getting hot from deep — that would go a long way toward giving the Spartans a shot.

• Prediction: Michigan’s best is better than MSU’s best this season. So the Spartans have to do their part to make sure Michigan doesn’t get rolling. There isn’t a ton of pressure on this game for MSU — the Wolverines have already won the Big Ten title and are rightly seen as the stronger side, and the Spartans aren’t going to lose any ground in NCAA tournament seeding, as long as they keep it competitive, which I think they will. It’s hard to imagine an upset, but MSU has tamed Michigan at Crisler before when it seemed unlikely. Just not quite this Michigan team.

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