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If you are wondering whether Ondas is still attractively priced after its recent run, you are not alone. This article focuses squarely on what you might be paying for today.
The share price closed at US$10.08, with a 7 day return of 1.1% decline, a 30 day return of 2.7% decline, and a year to date return of 8.5% decline, set against a very large 1 year return and a multi fold 3 year return.
Recent news flow around Ondas has highlighted investor attention on the business and its prospects, which helps explain why the share price has moved so sharply over the last year. These headlines give useful context, but they only tell part of the story about what the current price might imply.
On our checks, Ondas scores a 2 out of 6 valuation score, which means only some measures point to undervaluation. Next we will look at different valuation approaches and then finish with a way to think about value that goes beyond the usual ratios.
Ondas scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
A Discounted Cash Flow model takes estimates of a company’s future cash flows and discounts them back to today, to arrive at an estimate of what the whole business might be worth in the present.
For Ondas, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flows in $. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of $35.19 million. Analyst inputs extend out to 2027, and from 2028 to 2035 the cash flows are extrapolated. Within that path, projected free cash flow for 2030 is $344.89 million, with intermediate years moving from losses to positive cash generation according to the supplied schedule.
When those projected cash flows are discounted back to today, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of US$31.67 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$10.08, this implies the stock is 68.2% undervalued on these assumptions.
For companies where accounting book value is a meaningful anchor, the P/B ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying relative to the net assets on the balance sheet. Investors often look for a P/B that lines up with their expectations for growth and risk, since faster growth or higher perceived stability can justify a higher multiple, while more uncertainty can pull that “normal” level down.
Ondas currently trades on a P/B of 9.32x. That sits well above the Communications industry average of 1.74x and above the peer group average of 5.55x, which suggests the market is placing a much richer value on Ondas equity compared with many peers and the broader industry.
Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of what a reasonable P/B for Ondas might be, given factors like its earnings profile, growth outlook, margins, market cap and specific risks. This can be more tailored than a simple comparison with industry or peer averages, which do not adjust for the company’s own characteristics. In this case, the Fair Ratio is not available, so it is not possible to say whether the current 9.32x P/B points to overvaluation, undervaluation, or something close to fair value based on that framework.
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St let you tell a clear story about Ondas by linking your view of its drones, counter drone solutions and wireless platforms to specific forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins. You can then turn that into your own Fair Value that you can compare with today’s price, track alongside other community views on the Ondas Community page, and see it update automatically as new news or earnings arrive. This can help you decide whether the current US$2.10 price looks attractive next to someone’s higher Fair Value of about US$24.11, or closer to a more cautious view around US$10.00.
For Ondas however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Ondas Narratives:
🐂 Ondas Bull Case
Fair value in this bullish narrative: US$18.38 per share
Current price gap: roughly 45% below this fair value estimate based on the latest close of US$10.08
Revenue growth assumption: very large, around 173x
Analysts in this camp link the US$1b capital raise and planned Roboteam acquisition to a path toward record revenue, with Ondas Autonomous Systems and government contracts as key drivers.
They expect operating leverage to improve over time, with a focus on higher margin autonomous systems and private wireless networks, while acknowledging high operating costs and debt as important constraints.
The narrative leans on analyst targets that assume sizeable future revenues and earnings, a relatively high future P/E multiple and ongoing share issuance, and encourages you to weigh those assumptions against your own view of what is realistic for Ondas.
🐻 Ondas Bear Case
Fair value in this bearish narrative: US$10.00 per share
Current price gap: roughly 1% above this fair value estimate based on the latest close of US$10.08
Revenue growth assumption: very large, around 179x
This view highlights execution risks around counter drone rollouts, slower government adoption and the challenge of integrating multiple acquisitions into a single defense and autonomous systems platform.
It points to reliance on large equity raises, a growing cost base and the possibility that recurring, services style revenue and margins may fall short of what more optimistic expectations imply.
Even though the underlying business assumptions still involve strong revenue growth over time, the bearish cohort uses a lower fair value, a high implied future P/E and a discount rate of about 8.0%, and suggests the current market price is already close to or above what those assumptions support.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
