Feb. 28, 2026, 6:04 a.m. ET
In just two weekends, a pristine March Madness bracket will be announced.
It will include 68 teams, all vying for the goal of being the final team in Indianapolis at the Final Four, with confetti coming down on their heads as “One Shining Moment” is played, spread out throughout the country. It will also start the clock on bracket challenges, including USA TODAY Sports’ Bracket Sweepstakes.
But before that bracket can be released on Selection Sunday, there are also a handful of questions that remain to be answered, specifically on the bubble, which has more teams on it heading into the first week of March than in past years.
What appears to be answered for the bracket — or at least close to it — is who will be on the 1-seed line. Duke, led by Cameron Boozer, jumped ahead of Arizona and Michigan for the No. 1 overall seed with a win over the Wolverines in the nation’s capital last weekend. The only remaining question for the 1-seed is who will be the No. 4 overall seed, which could include the UConn, Illinois, Iowa State, Houston and Purdue.
Here’s a look at the latest NCAA tournament bracket projection, which takes into account games played through Friday, Feb. 27:
March Madness bracket prediction
Last Four In
- Santa Clara **
- New Mexico **
- Auburn **
- TCU **
First Four Out
- Missouri
- San Diego State
- VCU
- California
No. 1 Seeds
- Duke (AQ — ACC)
- Arizona (AQ — Big 12)
- Michigan (AQ — Big Ten)
- UConn (AQ — Big East)
There’s a lot of debate on who should have the final No. 1 seed, and rightfully so. UConn stays on the 1-seed line thanks to a win against St. John’s in Hartford on Feb. 25. The Huskies are also 8-2 against Quad 1 opponents this season, which includes a pretty flashy win at Allen Fieldhouse back in December. Arizona has a big one against No. 14 Kansas on Feb. 28.
No. 2 Seeds
- Iowa State
- Illinois
- Purdue
- Houston
Houston is sliding down from contention for a No. 1 seed following its third consecutive loss of the season on Feb. 23 at Kansas. The Cougars still have a combined 13-5 record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games that should benefit them nicely when the committee convenes in Indiana for Selection Sunday.
No. 3 Seeds
- Florida (AQ — SEC)
- Gonzaga (AQ — West Coast Conference)
- Kansas
- Michigan State
Florida has been coming into form in recent weeks, as the Gators have won eight straight heading into Feb. 28’s top-25 game against Arkansas. Kansas bounced back from an unranked loss to Cincinnati with a 13-point win over Houston. The Jayhawks have a shot at their ninth Quad 1 win of the season on Feb. 28 at Arizona, where they will look to go for the regular-season series sweep.
Buying high on Michigan State’s top-10 win over Purdue on Feb. 26 by bumping them up to the 3-seed line. The Spartans have won three straight heading into March, and now have a 7-5 Quad 1 record and a combined 14-5 in the top two quadrants.
No. 4 Seeds
- Texas Tech
- Virginia
- Nebraska
- Alabama
What a job Ryan Odom has done in his first season in Charlottesville to get Virginia back in the NCAA Tournament. The Cavaliers have won nine straight games and are a game back of Duke for first place in the ACC.
No. 5 Seeds
- Tennessee
- North Carolina
- St. John’s
- Vanderbilt
A road loss Feb. 24 against Missouri snapped a four-game winning streak (and a stretch of eight wins in nine games) for Tennessee. Alabama gives the SEC some insurance with seven consecutive wins. North Carolina picked up its sixth Quad 1 win of the season on Feb. 23 with a three-point win over Louisville.
No. 6 Seeds
- Arkansas
- Louisville
- Brigham Young
- Villanova
Villanova has a big game on Feb. 28 at Madison Square Garden against St. John’s, where it looks for the regular-season series split and another Quad 1 win. BYU has dropped six of its last nine, though one of those three wins comes against ranked Iowa State.
No. 7 Seeds
- Wisconsin
- Saint Louis (AQ — Atlantic 10)
- Utah State (AQ — Mountain West)
- North Carolina State
Wisconsin is between a 6-seed and a 7-seed. The Badgers stay on the 7-seed line here after a Quad 2 Away win over Oregon on Feb. 25, and have a Quad 1 opportunity on deck on Feb. 28. Saint Louis and Utah State are here as automatic qualifiers of the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West, but feel safe to make the field if they don’t win their respective conference tournaments.
No. 8 Seeds
Kentucky’s last season slide went on pause on Feb. 24 with a win on the road at South Carolina. The Wildcats have still lost five of their last eight, with two ranked games remaining against Vanderbilt and Florida before the SEC tournament. Could Kentucky be on the chopping block before heading to Nashville?
No. 9 Seeds
- Texas A&M
- Saint Mary’s
- Central Florida
- UCLA
UCF moves up to the 9-seed line after beating BYU on the road by double digits. Texas A&M is on the verge of making the NCAA Tournament in their first seasons under Bucky McMillan. UCLA has won back-to-back games after another viral news conference from Mick Cronin, highlighted by a top-10 win over Illinois last weekend.
No. 10 Seeds
- Southern Methodist
- Clemson
- Texas
- Missouri
SMU falls to the 10-seed line after dropping one on the road at Cal. Missouri moves up to the 10-seed line following a top-25 win at home against Tennessee earlier in the week, and as a result of Indiana’s loss to Northwestern.
No. 11 Seeds
- Miami (Ohio) (AQ — Mid-American)
- Ohio State
- Indiana **
- Santa Clara **
- Auburn **
- TCU **
A double-digit road loss at Oklahoma has Auburn in “must-win” territory here on out to save its NCAA tournament chances. The Tigers’ wins over then-No. 15 Arkansas and No. 16 Florida are keeping them in the field despite losing six of their last seven.
Miami (Ohio) is two wins away from having a perfect regular season at 31-0. Ohio State has three big opportunities to pick up wins before the end of the regular season — vs. Iowa, vs. Penn State and vs. Indiana — to create some breathing room on the bubble heading into the Big Ten tournament.
Indiana finds itself down to the 11-seed line after its third consecutive loss of the season, to Northwestern (which is tied for third-to-last in the Big Ten). The Hoosiers have lost four of their last six. Santa Clara has an impressive record, but will likely need one (or two) wins against Saint Mary’s before Selection Sunday. TCU keeps itself in the field after back-to-back wins over West Virginia and Arizona State, respectively.
No. 12 Seeds
- South Florida (AQ — American)
- Belmont (AQ — Missouri Valley)
- Yale (AQ — Ivy League)
- Stephen F. Austin (AQ — Southland)
No. 13 Seeds
- High Point (AQ — Big South)
- UC Irvine (AQ — Big West)
- UNC Wilmington (AQ — Colonial Athletic Association)
- Liberty (AQ — Conference USA)
No. 14 Seeds
- East Tennessee State (AQ — Southern)
- North Dakota State (AQ — Summit League)
- Austin Peay (AQ — Atlantic Sun)
- Utah Valley (AQ — Western Athletic)
No. 15 Seeds
- Portland State (AQ — Big Sky)
- Navy (AQ — Patriot League)
- Merrimack (AQ — Metro Atlantic Athletic)
- Wright State (AQ — Horizon)
No. 16 Seeds
- Marshall (AQ — Sun Belt)
- LIU (AQ — Northeast)
- Bethune-Cookman (AQ — Southwestern Atlantic) **
- Morehead State (AQ — Ohio Valley) **
- Howard (AQ — Mid-Eastern Athletic) **
- UMBC (AQ — America East) **
** Denotes playing in First Four game
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