How Low Can IBM Stock Go?

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International Business Machines (IBM) stock has decreased by 11.5% over the past 21 trading days. This recent decline reflects heightened anxiety surrounding increasing Treasury yields, concerns regarding valuation, and slowing growth in hybrid-cloud software, yet significant drops like this frequently raise a more challenging question: is the downturn temporary, or indicative of deeper issues within the company?

Before evaluating its downturn resilience, let’s assess the current position of IBM.

  • Size: International Business Machines is a $239 billion company generating $65 billion in revenue, currently trading at $256.28.
  • Fundamentals: The revenue growth over the last 12 months is 4.5%, with an operating margin of 17.7%.
  • Liquidity: It has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.28 and a Cash to Assets ratio of 0.1.
  • Valuation: International Business Machines stock is presently trading at a P/E multiple of 30.3 and a P/EBIT multiple of 21.0.
  • There has been one occasion since 2010 where it fell by more than 30% in less than 30 days and later rebounded by 36.6% within a year. Refer to IBM Dip Buy Analysis.

These metrics indicate a Moderate operational performance, along with a Moderate valuation, classifying the stock as Fairly Priced. For more information, see Buy or Sell IBM Stock.

This leads us to the critical concern for investors anxious about this decline: how resilient is IBM stock if the markets take a downturn? This is where our downturn resilience framework becomes relevant. Suppose IBM stock declines another 20-30% to $179 — can investors maintain their positions? It turns out that the stock experienced an impact slightly worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) the extent of the stock’s decline and (b) the speed of its recovery. Below, we explore each downturn in detail.

2022 Inflation Shock

  • IBM stock fell 20.2% from a peak of $145.21 on 11 June 2021 to $115.81 on 26 November 2021, compared to a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
  • However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 17 November 2022.
  • Since then, the stock has risen to a high of $314.98 on 12 November 2025 and is currently trading at $256.28.

2020 COVID Pandemic

  • IBM stock fell 39.0% from a peak of $149.08 on 12 February 2020 to $90.97 on 23 March 2020, compared to a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
  • However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 22 November 2022.

2018 Correction

  • IBM stock fell 40.9% from a peak of $174.65 on 1 March 2017 to $103.26 on 24 December 2018, compared to a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
  • However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 25 January 2024.

2008 Global Financial Crisis

  • IBM stock fell 44.8% from a high of $124.79 on 22 July 2008 to $68.86 on 20 November 2008, compared to a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
  • However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 23 December 2009.

Feeling anxious regarding IBM stock? Consider a portfolio approach.

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