The conflict between the US and Iran is turning out to be a ‘math’ challenge for the American side over its use of highly-sophisticated and state-of-art Patriot air-defense missiles against small, rudimentary, and one-way attack Iranian drones.
While Iran’s Shahed-136 drones have hit US bases, oil infrastructure and civilian buildings, the problem for the US and Israeli side is not its interception, but that of its affordability and the cost involved to destroy them.
The US-made Patriot air-defense system have largely been successful in stopping the Iranian Shaheds and other ballistic missiles, intercepting over 90% of the UAVs.
But using $4 million defence system to destroy drones worth $20,000 is turning out to be a haunting task for the Western military planners.
According to a report in Bloomberg, the cheap weapons consume resources, which was meant for much more sophisticated and potentially ‘more harmful’ threats.
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Iran was thought to have around 2,000 ballistic missiles remaining after last year’s hostilities with Israel. Reportedly, it holds far greater numbers of Shahed drones, which are cheaper and easier to produce.
Cost difference: Iran’s drone vs US’s drone
Air defence systems supplied by the US have so far performed effectively. US-made Patriot air-defense missiles have been largely successful in stopping the Iranian Shaheds and other ballistic missiles, with interception rates over 90 per cent, Bloomberg reported citing UAE.
However, the financial imbalance is stark. A single Patriot missile costs around $4 million, while a Shahed drone may cost roughly $20,000. The mismatch highlights a long-standing concern among Western defence planners, inexpensive weapons can drain resources designed to counter more advanced threats.
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Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, told Bloomberg “Attrition strategy makes operational sense from Iran’s perspective. They are calculating the defenders will exhaust their interceptors and the political will of Gulf states will crack and put pressure on the US and Israel to cease operations before they run out of missiles and drones.”
An internal assessment seen by Bloomberg suggested Qatar’s Patriot missile stocks could last only four days at the present usage rate. Doha has reportedly pushed for a quick resolution. However, Qatar’s International Media Office said the “inventory of Patriot interceptor missiles held by the Qatar Armed Forces has not been depleted and remains well-stocked.”
Strain on US stockpiles
On the American side, analysts question whether sufficient munitions have been positioned in the region to sustain a month-long campaign, as President Donald Trump has suggested.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said at a press briefing, “This is not Iraq, this is not endless.”
Production capacity also raises concerns. Lockheed Martin manufactured roughly 600 PAC-3 interceptor missiles in 2025. Thousands may already have been fired across the Middle East since the conflict began, based on reported interception figures.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE also operate the more advanced THAAD system, which is designed to intercept high-speed ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere. Each THAAD missile costs about $12 million, making them even more expensive to deploy.
Fighter aircraft have also been used to intercept drones with Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System missiles, priced between $20,000 and $30,000 each, excluding flight costs.
Iran’s defensive limitations
While Iran continues offensive strikes, its own air defences have been weakened. Early attacks targeted surface-to-air missile systems, including Russian-made S-300 batteries. Since then, US and Israeli aircraft have reportedly operated in Iranian airspace without significant resistance.
Iran’s military is acting apparently without close or frequent coordination with the civilian leadership including the ministry of foreign affairs, according to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
“Our military units are now in fact independent and somehow isolated and they are acting based on instructions, general instructions given to them in advance,’ Araghchi, a veteran of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said in an interview to Al Jazeera on Sunday.
Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had previously warned that a US strike would trigger a wider regional conflict. He was killed in Saturday’s air strikes.